The increasing complexity of product functionality and manufacturing process parameters often lead to complex failure modes during the product life cycle. Based on the detection of a damage case within the product using phase, a risk analysis and risk prognosis has to be carried out immediately. This paper outlines the essential procedure of the new developed method “Risk Analysis and Prognosis of complex Products (RAPP)”. Based on field data, the determination of damage probabilities, damage development and damage case prognosis for a comprehensive risk estimation regarding the product fleet within the usage phase is feasible.