forecasting model

One-of-a-kind or small batch manufacturer can only derive process times from previous projects to a limited extent for the planning of customer order and component-specific projects and transfer these to new projects. This is due to the fact that the process times depend on influencing parameters that are directly related to the respective component. As part of a research project, these influencing parameters to the duration for logistic processes are examined. The identification of the influencing parameters using a Delphi Study is explained in this article.

Together with the companies Alcatel SEL, Knorr-Bremse, Rohde&Schwarz, Temic and Webasto by leadership of the author a BMBF sponsored research project has been carried out. The task and target of the project partners was to develop a reliable and workable forecasting model for duration and effort of an industrial development project. Up to now there is a lack of a systematic approach to forecast and to plan development time considering dynamic changes of the frame conditions. The following article describes the development and successful implementation of a forecasting model for development times and shows the effects by picturing and describing two case studies.